PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

crct

0xcd141c13dd32d7705a6e3eefa4f098b255771481

Realised P&L
$-10.85
Volume
$6.9k
Markets traded
29
Open portfolio
$8.05

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded29
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration52.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration75.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? · Yes0.0320.038$6.09+$1.09
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0420.017$1.96−$3.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No0.0540.000$0.00−$11.58
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00−$3.09
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$10.00
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.1730.000$0.00−$33.00
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.0520.000$0.00−$5.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$5.00
Iran leadership change by June 30? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$10.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$5.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00−$7.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00−$82.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 20:36Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.59$36.88
04-30 19:42Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?BUY0.1099999815$5.00
04-27 08:59Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.012$5.00
04-23 17:58Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY0.0330000003$4.00
04-19 18:29Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.0899999845$5.00
04-18 12:50Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?SELL0.4$20.00
04-18 11:14Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY0.007$7.00
04-14 17:03Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL0.0805018551$11.50
04-11 16:33Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?BUY0.0316105579$5.00
04-11 16:33Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?BUY0.0769999674$2.00
04-11 16:28Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?BUY0.2699999806$10.00
04-11 16:26Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?BUY0.0520000001$5.00
04-10 17:34Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?BUY0.1$5.00
04-07 22:11US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?SELL0.377$37.70
04-06 14:24US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.04$4.00