0xccdf8ad1870f79d147c8ccae01d5b68998f71061
- Realised P&L
- $8.09
- Volume
- $91.28
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $14.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.725 | $3.30 | +$1.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.335 | $2.58 | +$0.58 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.425 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.745 | $1.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.250 | $1.85 | −$0.15 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.440 | 0.275 | $1.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.490 | 0.355 | $1.06 | −$0.41 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.108 | $0.72 | −$1.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.70at 0.230Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.89at 0.460Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.38at 0.540Will Palantir say "Insurance" during earnings call?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:15 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:14 | Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:12 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:11 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:09 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:08 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.2839999193 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 08:06 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:53 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 15:52 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 05:09 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 21:07 | Will Palantir say "Insurance" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.62 |
| 07-31 13:06 | Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-30 17:41 | Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.47 |
| 07-29 09:17 | Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |