Kevinsask
0xccbdb7b42905112f6dbbcea729d4c80a0fae5a2b
- Realised P&L
- $-37.76
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $9.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.135 | $5.64 | −$4.22 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.015 | $2.70 | −$1.30 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.060 | $0.68 | −$1.32 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.66 |
| Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.53 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? · Yes | 0.291 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.23 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.09at 0.450US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$4.43at 0.530Will Trump say "Commonwealth" during the UK state banquet on September 17?
- +$0.56at 0.900U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$0.33at 0.026Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-1.00at 0.062Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 20:55 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 16:15 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.2899999696 | $4.86 |
| 05-12 00:25 | Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.96 |
| 05-12 00:22 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0229999944 | $4.00 |
| 05-12 00:21 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.03 | $3.46 |
| 04-27 15:55 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0259999916 | $3.00 |
| 04-08 01:53 | Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.1756096974 | $2.00 |
| 04-08 01:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | BUY | 0.0386276113 | $1.85 |
| 04-08 01:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | BUY | 0.119999952 | $1.86 |
| 04-07 04:15 | Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? | BUY | 0.1269999486 | $1.86 |
| 04-07 03:42 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $5.53 |
| 04-06 21:06 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | BUY | 0.096 | $2.78 |
| 04-06 21:06 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $1.91 |
| 04-06 02:08 | Will Trump's remarks not air? | BUY | 0.0133630224 | $2.00 |
| 04-06 02:08 | Will Trump say "Caine" during Monday news conference? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |