0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516
0xcca90a5d3c8f2d6663817e3650d6adbe9ab44c9f
- Realised P&L
- $9.1k
- Volume
- $1.81M
- Markets traded
- 256
- Open portfolio
- $34.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded256
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.3kat 0.527Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$14.3kat 0.485Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
- +$10.0kat 0.559Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$5.3kat 0.676Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$5.2kat 0.763Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 00:51 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $229.97 |
| 07-18 18:52 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1898058573 | $2.0k |
| 07-18 18:52 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.4451991994 | $4.6k |
| 07-08 02:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $1.8k |
| 07-08 02:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $24.9k |
| 07-08 02:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.995 | $7.5k |
| 07-02 12:28 | Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.4599999995 | $200.00 |
| 06-30 12:44 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1263052234 | $290.00 |
| 06-30 12:44 | Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | BUY | 0.0673686255 | $110.00 |
| 06-22 11:30 | Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? | BUY | 0.0455556687 | $100.00 |
| 06-22 01:50 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? | BUY | 0.1330403911 | $35.00 |
| 06-22 01:49 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0987734315 | $500.00 |
| 06-22 01:36 | Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.1106900465 | $457.00 |
| 06-22 01:36 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.078824378 | $475.36 |
| 06-21 15:12 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.0581216693 | $704.28 |