aaron81
0xcc95e97907cfa624bbc1fe824d05bc2345462cae
- Realised P&L
- $-144.17
- Volume
- $13.4k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $31.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 1.000 | $22.46 | +$10.11 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.970 | $9.23 | +$1.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.98at 0.677Bulls vs. Hornets
- +$5.00at 0.680Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- +$1.00at 0.868KCC T20 Summer League: Reddy's XI vs Tally Rangers
- +$0.96at 0.430Yoon arrested by January 31?
- +$0.60at 0.970Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:47 | Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.34 |
| 01-30 14:17 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.39 |
| 01-30 14:08 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $18.46 |
| 01-30 13:05 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.06 |
| 12-30 00:29 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.53 |
| 12-29 21:32 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.14 |
| 12-29 21:04 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.56 |
| 12-29 20:43 | Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 10-31 00:08 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.9929999795 | $12.60 |
| 10-30 22:49 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.45 |
| 10-30 19:20 | Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.13 |
| 09-29 10:48 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.92 |
| 09-28 21:13 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999821 | $18.63 |
| 09-28 20:45 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $19.43 |
| 08-31 12:33 | Yoon out of custody by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.81 |