0xcc8B1A6b60c3F62073B91ee7887538E201a1495e-1780988042009
0xcc8b1a6b60c3f62073b91ee7887538e201a1495e
- Realised P&L
- $287.78
- Volume
- $35.0k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $688.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.071 | $316.38 | +$216.38 |
| Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO? · Yes | 0.262 | 0.483 | $184.35 | +$84.35 |
| Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.235 | $94.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.034 | $93.71 | −$198.54 |
| Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$378.66at 0.371Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?
- +$148.75at 0.606Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by December 31?
- +$105.97at 0.432Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?
- +$75.43at 0.295Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
- +$62.31at 0.749Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 10:46 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0225995103 | $100.00 |
| 10-29 10:00 | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | SELL | 0.1924288996 | $35.18 |
| 10-29 09:59 | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | BUY | 0.5469245394 | $100.00 |
| 10-29 09:58 | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | SELL | 0.257147657 | $143.88 |
| 10-29 09:57 | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | BUY | 0.3574323572 | $200.00 |
| 10-28 14:12 | Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO? | BUY | 0.2619999995 | $100.00 |
| 10-26 11:24 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.3718374995 | $305.00 |
| 10-26 11:23 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 10-22 10:09 | Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1060338251 | $300.00 |
| 10-16 08:54 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.132369232 | $463.05 |
| 10-16 08:48 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.142931331 | $500.00 |
| 10-16 06:55 | Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? | SELL | 0.34 | $711.32 |
| 10-15 10:12 | Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? | BUY | 0.2867879746 | $600.00 |
| 10-06 08:30 | Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 10-02 13:43 | Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar? | BUY | 0.7413733794 | $200.00 |