PolyBot

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Traders

Mangy62

0xcc50df7aecb69c741a10d1ff3f9c5fa69b60df9b

Realised P&L
$13.1k
Volume
$535.5k
Markets traded
303
Open portfolio
$9.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded303
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4470.595$6.5k+$1.6k
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.3800.595$1.2k+$430.00
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.8500.840$419.99$5.00
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5700.545$397.62$18.40
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes0.4340.255$370.32$259.76
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.9000.958$115.71+$7.01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.5100.935$37.97+$17.26
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0140.004$4.50$9.50
US congress stock trading ban before 2027? · Yes0.2700.055$3.67$14.36
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes0.5700.003$0.06$13.03
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.2530.001$0.01$4.92
Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00$120.59
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 · Under0.6200.000$0.00$24.80
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? · Yes0.0140.000$0.00$1.28
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? · Yes0.6070.000$0.00$12.4k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 18:50Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)BUY0.71$142.00
09-13 18:48Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)BUY0.66$69.29
09-13 18:45Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)BUY0.68$135.99
09-06 19:16Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5BUY0.63$31.50
09-06 19:15Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)BUY0.65$130.00
09-04 21:18Spread: Miami (FL) (-24.5)BUY0.5$100.00
09-04 21:16Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5BUY0.58$116.00
09-04 21:15Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)BUY0.63$126.00
09-02 17:48Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)BUY0.67$134.00
09-02 17:46Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5BUY0.58$116.00
09-02 17:45San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5BUY0.59$52.51
09-02 17:45Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5BUY0.62$124.00
08-31 19:13Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)BUY0.61$122.00
08-31 19:12Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)BUY0.69$138.00
08-31 19:11Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)BUY0.65$130.00