weathermakere
0xcc4fb4f9dd0405a971f992f4cba0011fab1e4926
- Realised P&L
- $-71.08
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $120.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6? · No | 0.581 | 0.575 | $57.49 | −$0.59 |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.430 | $43.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 5? · No | 0.487 | 0.475 | $12.29 | −$0.31 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.355 | $2.69 | +$0.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.425 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 6? · No | 0.630 | 0.645 | $1.74 | +$0.04 |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 6? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.225 | $1.48 | −$0.10 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$10.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.76at 0.433Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 3?
- +$20.83at 0.540Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 2?
- +$11.40at 0.310Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 4?
- +$6.93at 0.995Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 5?
- +$6.84at 0.460Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.45 | $17.55 |
| 08-05 03:02 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 6? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.96 |
| 08-05 02:48 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6? | SELL | 0.47 | $44.18 |
| 08-04 23:02 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.4 | $14.40 |
| 08-04 21:28 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 08-04 18:02 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.09 |
| 08-04 18:02 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.53 | $0.43 |
| 08-04 18:02 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.27 | $0.86 |
| 08-04 18:02 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 5? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.96 |
| 08-04 16:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.5 | $7.22 |
| 08-04 09:56 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.41 | $9.43 |
| 08-04 09:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.5 | $6.50 |
| 08-04 01:00 | Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.38 | $2.28 |
| 08-03 23:09 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 4? | SELL | 0.7 | $24.50 |
| 08-03 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.51 | $11.22 |