siwel
0xcc4ec7593e4884794e9f77e84af8beb3148b7ca3
- Realised P&L
- $-104.41
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $72.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.625 | $24.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.495 | $23.80 | −$1.20 |
| Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by October 31? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.180 | $20.23 | −$4.77 |
| Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.405 | $4.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.57at 0.359US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$39.83at 0.386Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?
- +$30.91at 0.618Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
- +$29.35at 0.460US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$22.32at 0.528Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 14:56 | Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 10:28 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $25.00 |
| 09-29 09:24 | Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31? | BUY | 0.5199999908 | $25.00 |
| 09-29 09:23 | Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by October 31? | BUY | 0.222490033 | $25.00 |
| 09-19 15:21 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 10:22 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.0789999986 | $50.00 |
| 04-07 22:16 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.6199999814 | $30.00 |
| 04-07 22:16 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.358999995 | $30.00 |
| 02-25 18:21 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999908 | $25.00 |
| 07-30 08:19 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | BUY | 0.8299999975 | $20.00 |
| 07-20 14:18 | Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? | BUY | 0.5283205614 | $25.00 |
| 07-19 20:58 | Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | BUY | 0.229999995 | $35.00 |
| 06-30 10:32 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.62 |
| 06-17 07:46 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | BUY | 0.5299999936 | $25.00 |
| 06-16 17:23 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1949999958 | $30.00 |