PoloMarket123
0xcbfc77ef5f4b0a7c1bc7a6e1afa28f65c3c30be4
- Realised P&L
- $-586.64
- Volume
- $29.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,752
- Open portfolio
- $10.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,752
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or higher on October 21? · No | 0.510 | 0.740 | $10.21 | +$3.17 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C on October 21? · No | 0.520 | 0.050 | $0.30 | −$2.86 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be -2°C on October 19? · No | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 4°C on October 20? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 18? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.64 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on October 19? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 19? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.61at 0.190Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 25?
- +$26.52at 0.470Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 13?
- +$25.76at 0.187Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 17?
- +$25.46at 0.190Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2?
- +$17.71at 0.360Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 07:20 | Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or higher on October 21? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 10-19 01:20 | Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be -1°C on October 19? | SELL | 0.99 | $5.97 |
| 10-18 19:34 | Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.1 | $0.65 |
| 09-14 03:09 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.99 | $10.91 |
| 09-13 19:09 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.94 |
| 09-12 22:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on September 12? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 09-10 19:24 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.74 |
| 09-10 15:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.79 |
| 09-10 15:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.86 |
| 09-10 06:12 | Will the lowest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.98 |
| 09-09 23:43 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 11? | BUY | 0.51 | $3.11 |
| 09-09 17:22 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.51 | $3.20 |
| 09-09 15:06 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on September 9? | BUY | 0.46 | $3.20 |
| 09-09 15:05 | Will the lowest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on September 9? | SELL | 0.998 | $9.12 |
| 09-01 01:18 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 1? | BUY | 0.51 | $3.20 |