sharkdown
0xcbf22e52fdc7c35bad4474bea32d02ef2c7dec01
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $25.3k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $436.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 4? · Yes | 0.462 | 0.806 | $436.92 | +$186.34 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on September 1? · Yes | 0.573 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$607.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 14? · Yes | 0.356 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 29? · No | 0.383 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$201.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 31? · No | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.28 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 7? · Yes | 0.743 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.63 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on September 18? · No | 0.894 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$820.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 11? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$221.58at 0.308Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 26?
- +$141.10at 0.584Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 30?
- +$120.14at 0.755Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on September 14?
- +$110.06at 0.881Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 16?
- +$87.59at 0.670Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 08:19 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.7515810277 | $121.70 |
| 10-04 08:19 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 4? | SELL | 0.7662735702 | $73.55 |
| 10-03 09:49 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.3926031702 | $178.09 |
| 10-02 08:44 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.5534861733 | $191.72 |
| 09-17 17:44 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.894567071 | $820.00 |
| 09-17 17:41 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $34.13 |
| 09-17 17:41 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $20.05 |
| 09-17 17:41 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $15.28 |
| 09-17 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $23.15 |
| 09-17 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $29.23 |
| 09-17 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $24.95 |
| 09-17 17:40 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.992 | $30.06 |
| 09-17 17:38 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.9923619993 | $58.97 |
| 09-17 17:37 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.9918389386 | $32.15 |
| 09-17 17:37 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.995 | $51.18 |