twixik
0xcbe7b647c4404e6228c93797febf935da2006775
- Realised P&L
- $-531.87
- Volume
- $63.6k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $724.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.043 | $724.21 | +$39.92 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$963.99 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.602NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$-3.6kat 0.174Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.13 | $578.68 |
| 09-15 16:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1350082555 | $967.56 |
| 09-12 15:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.22 | $962.69 |
| 09-11 13:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $964.12 |
| 08-24 22:23 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0406071466 | $481.84 |
| 08-22 10:17 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9569428135 | $10.7k |
| 08-20 20:26 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6978513193 | $1.0k |
| 08-20 17:55 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7719509354 | $2.7k |
| 08-20 15:41 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4997187796 | $1.0k |
| 08-20 15:34 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4760420317 | $2.0k |
| 08-15 10:37 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0208877408 | $94.87 |
| 07-19 00:12 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.4469999989 | $107.60 |
| 07-19 00:06 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.65 |
| 07-18 23:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4099999999 | $963.99 |