VelvetSurvey
0xcbb4ba8d677b58515f5f025d0b58ca439f2d5c3d
- Realised P&L
- $-5.36
- Volume
- $5.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $238.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.605 | 0.595 | $238.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.24at 0.038Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- +$0.07at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14?
- +$0.07at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17?
- +$0.04at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18?
- +$0.03at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 15:13 | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | SELL | 0.65 | $3.43 |
| 10-02 14:24 | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | SELL | 0.64 | $128.00 |
| 10-02 11:17 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.5552781638 | $48.75 |
| 09-30 08:00 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.802 | $101.85 |
| 04-21 11:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.46 |
| 04-17 11:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? | BUY | 0.9989999715 | $13.60 |
| 04-05 08:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.96 |
| 04-03 09:55 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 3? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.93 |
| 04-02 07:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.44 |
| 04-01 07:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.09 |
| 03-31 10:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.60 |
| 03-30 09:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? | BUY | 0.9989999987 | $13.97 |
| 03-27 07:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.58 |
| 03-26 06:48 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.93 |
| 03-25 08:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.06 |