pizzahatd
0xcbb1c1b73489c748a792356674a8d7e671e88d22
- Realised P&L
- $-292.35
- Volume
- $16.3k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $315.23
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? · Yes | 0.503 | 0.835 | $165.82 | +$65.82 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.855 | $122.14 | +$22.14 |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.075 | $19.23 | −$30.77 |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.036 | $8.04 | −$13.96 |
| Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$85.00 |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 9? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.25 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes | 0.419 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.00 |
| Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? · Yes | 0.374 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: February · Nothing | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.22 |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$163.69at 0.309Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
- +$42.08at 0.787Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$41.88at 0.428MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$-31.05at 0.247Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
- +$-65.54at 0.408Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 01:40 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999951 | $100.00 |
| 08-31 01:36 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $206.32 |
| 08-05 18:21 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999991 | $162.72 |
| 07-09 20:54 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? | BUY | 0.16 | $8.00 |
| 07-09 20:51 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? | BUY | 0.0985663082 | $22.00 |
| 07-09 20:51 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | BUY | 0.5035633959 | $100.00 |
| 07-09 20:50 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? | BUY | 0.2034742857 | $42.00 |
| 06-14 22:41 | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.3092945969 | $73.30 |
| 06-01 14:53 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4179999931 | $30.59 |
| 06-01 14:52 | Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | SELL | 0.0864411889 | $16.34 |
| 06-01 14:52 | Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? | SELL | 0.06 | $11.21 |
| 05-31 01:00 | Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | BUY | 0.2375647319 | $45.00 |
| 05-31 00:59 | Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? | BUY | 0.3960072525 | $74.00 |
| 05-14 08:04 | Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? | BUY | 0.5701287182 | $85.00 |
| 03-31 15:13 | Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? | BUY | 0.3740775994 | $50.00 |