PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

pizzahatd

0xcbb1c1b73489c748a792356674a8d7e671e88d22

Realised P&L
$-292.35
Volume
$16.3k
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$315.23

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? · Yes0.5030.835$165.82+$65.82
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7000.855$122.14+$22.14
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? · Yes0.1950.075$19.23$30.77
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? · Yes0.0990.036$8.04$13.96
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? · Yes0.5700.000$0.00$85.00
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$29.25
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? · Yes0.4800.000$0.00$60.00
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes0.4190.000$0.00$170.00
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? · Yes0.3740.000$0.00$50.00
Nothing Ever Happens: February · Nothing0.0060.000$0.00$76.22
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? · Yes0.5100.000$0.00$24.53

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-31 01:40Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6999999951$100.00
08-31 01:36Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?SELL0.989$206.32
08-05 18:21Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?BUY0.7799999991$162.72
07-09 20:54Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?BUY0.16$8.00
07-09 20:51Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?BUY0.0985663082$22.00
07-09 20:51Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?BUY0.5035633959$100.00
07-09 20:50Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?BUY0.2034742857$42.00
06-14 22:41Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?BUY0.3092945969$73.30
06-01 14:53MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.4179999931$30.59
06-01 14:52Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?SELL0.0864411889$16.34
06-01 14:52Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?SELL0.06$11.21
05-31 01:00Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?BUY0.2375647319$45.00
05-31 00:59Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?BUY0.3960072525$74.00
05-14 08:04Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?BUY0.5701287182$85.00
03-31 15:13Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?BUY0.3740775994$50.00