0xcbaf327403f3b49a58addb6c80e6fa9935dac083-1793102564978
0xcbaf327403f3b49a58addb6c80e6fa9935dac083
- Realised P&L
- $233.62
- Volume
- $67.9k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $277.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · No | 0.640 | 0.660 | $154.69 | +$4.69 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.305 | 0.300 | $74.80 | −$1.20 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No | 0.643 | 0.640 | $46.80 | −$0.20 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET · Up | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.159Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$3.09at 0.449Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$-944.22at 0.035Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.6427113773 | $47.00 |
| 11-01 22:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 21:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 21:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $150.00 |
| 11-01 21:51 | Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3048128334 | $76.00 |
| 11-01 21:50 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 17:55 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.0040188899 | $18.56 |
| 10-29 17:11 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.0047488064 | $30.29 |
| 10-28 17:47 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.0070698927 | $150.91 |
| 10-28 06:29 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.019 | $44.00 |
| 10-28 06:18 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0224094527 | $350.00 |
| 10-28 04:20 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0500008821 | $500.00 |
| 10-28 04:10 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.0480886338 | $100.00 |
| 10-28 03:57 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9397193605 | $1.4k |
| 10-27 18:58 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1641243483 | $95.00 |