notcookiesave
0xcba261e32d6474b9fc295f08772414e2c9cbc3d8
- Realised P&L
- $-439.22
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $66.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.445 | 0.370 | $66.54 | −$13.46 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? · No | 0.607 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.00 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.60 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Tribute to America Rally? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.90 |
| Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? · No | 0.243 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$91.80 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.706 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.96 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting? · Yes | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$267.00 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.591 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026? · No | 0.794 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.60at 0.387Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?
- +$71.74at 0.650DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
- +$54.68at 0.604US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$44.06at 0.664Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 10+ times during Tribute to America Rally?
- +$-37.08at 0.297Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 14:32 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999979 | $43.00 |
| 10-26 14:31 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.439016742 | $37.00 |
| 09-26 13:42 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.186405983 | $13.90 |
| 09-26 13:36 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.7064774436 | $93.96 |
| 09-04 03:59 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7944824984 | $99.79 |
| 08-17 14:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5905096652 | $140.00 |
| 08-17 14:54 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.8746435644 | $176.68 |
| 08-01 03:27 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.6039447105 | $122.00 |
| 07-02 09:35 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Tribute to America Rally? | BUY | 0.2599999903 | $14.00 |
| 07-02 09:34 | Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 10+ times during Tribute to America Rally? | BUY | 0.6552561825 | $86.00 |
| 07-02 09:33 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0959550314 | $17.41 |
| 06-13 02:10 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2885903576 | $52.37 |
| 06-02 01:47 | Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? | BUY | 0.3868236407 | $54.00 |
| 05-20 03:09 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? | BUY | 0.2517974443 | $75.00 |
| 04-19 14:49 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY | 0.6073811145 | $102.00 |