PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

maRu118877

0xcb992beddc290938bf4841b309940a84d80115d6

Realised P&L
$-589.70
Volume
$33.4k
Markets traded
201
Open portfolio
$221.45

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded201
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes0.8460.375$100.89$126.60
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.6270.295$79.92$90.01
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0140.015$33.21+$3.21
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes0.1000.022$4.50$15.50
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.0250.028$2.75+$0.26
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.0600.004$0.17$2.83
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No0.4740.000$0.00$2.37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00$3.90
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.6900.000$0.00$1.00
Utah vs. Golden Knights · Utah0.4700.000$0.00$4.70
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.1240.000$0.00$9.66
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? · No0.0370.000$0.00$1.87
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$6.00
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · No0.7780.000$0.00$38.90
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes0.3450.000$0.00$13.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-26 16:16Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?SELL0.9475842667$142.14
07-26 16:16Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?SELL0.9573333333$157.96
07-26 16:16Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.92$9.20
07-26 16:16Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.983$14.74
07-26 16:15Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.2$5.00
07-26 16:15Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?SELL0.501$25.05
07-26 16:14Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.956$54.49
07-26 16:14Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?SELL0.98$98.00
07-26 16:14Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?SELL0.89$44.50
06-23 18:55Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.6899999959$48.93
06-23 18:51Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?BUY0.99$49.98
06-23 18:51SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?BUY0.99$49.98
06-11 20:23Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL0.7026566$35.13
05-31 18:10Xi Jinping out by June 30?SELL0.99$59.40
05-30 13:47Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.973$24.32