maRu118877
0xcb992beddc290938bf4841b309940a84d80115d6
- Realised P&L
- $-589.70
- Volume
- $33.4k
- Markets traded
- 201
- Open portfolio
- $221.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded201
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$141.56at 0.596Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 1?
- +$55.30at 0.283MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$50.86at 0.745Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15?
- +$47.90at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- +$37.50at 0.850LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 16:16 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9475842667 | $142.14 |
| 07-26 16:16 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9573333333 | $157.96 |
| 07-26 16:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 07-26 16:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $14.74 |
| 07-26 16:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 07-26 16:15 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.501 | $25.05 |
| 07-26 16:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.956 | $54.49 |
| 07-26 16:14 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.98 | $98.00 |
| 07-26 16:14 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.89 | $44.50 |
| 06-23 18:55 | Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6899999959 | $48.93 |
| 06-23 18:51 | Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.98 |
| 06-23 18:51 | SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.98 |
| 06-11 20:23 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.7026566 | $35.13 |
| 05-31 18:10 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | SELL | 0.99 | $59.40 |
| 05-30 13:47 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.973 | $24.32 |