mp
0xcb78259d88449ac1b86188818cdca7e185e1e180
- Realised P&L
- $573.08
- Volume
- $42.8k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.95at 0.093Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
- +$77.54at 0.710Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
- +$29.79at 0.948Brex IPO before 2027?
- +$29.23at 0.367Anthropic IPO before 2027?
- +$29.02at 0.894Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 20:40 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $864.00 |
| 07-01 13:50 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.023 | $7.84 |
| 06-30 03:46 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 06-30 03:41 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.48 | $4.80 |
| 06-29 12:27 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.014 | $7.00 |
| 06-29 12:27 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.026 | $13.00 |
| 06-29 12:26 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.766 | $76.59 |
| 06-28 22:00 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 21:49 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.014 | $1.40 |
| 06-22 12:53 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.991 | $297.30 |
| 06-15 23:45 | Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? | SELL | 0.8956874708 | $384.03 |
| 06-15 23:44 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $267.00 |
| 06-08 18:29 | Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? | BUY | 0.6996781481 | $300.00 |
| 05-26 13:02 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.39 | $195.00 |
| 05-19 22:21 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.1276058 | $12.76 |