Oranus
0xcb5fffdc148c36f9b2931f62fa2a6e0b1aa6f0c1
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $76.9k
- Markets traded
- 1,258
- Open portfolio
- $1.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,258
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET · Up | 0.130 | 0.185 | $1.42 | +$0.42 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET · Down | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET · Down | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET · Down | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.07 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET · Down | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET · Down | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET · Up | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.92at 0.195Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14?
- +$51.07at 0.273Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
- +$37.19at 0.850US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$31.73at 0.328Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$30.70at 0.138Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 11:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | SELL | 0.92 | $7.36 |
| 10-18 11:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $1.60 |
| 10-18 11:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 11:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? | SELL | 0.0569884242 | $6.10 |
| 10-18 09:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.1899999982 | $1.07 |
| 10-18 09:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 09:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.36 |
| 10-18 09:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 08:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 08:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.41 |
| 10-18 08:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.309999976 | $1.94 |
| 10-18 08:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | SELL | 0.06 | $0.26 |
| 10-18 08:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 08:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.26 |