the-260-Challenge
0xcb58959b9a016b4e502a4f593e82d0b80e6accd0
- Realised P&L
- $-11.2k
- Volume
- $486.2k
- Markets traded
- 6,109
- Open portfolio
- $51.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,109
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.90at 0.102Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
- +$39.91at 0.180Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
- +$30.36at 0.160Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in July?
- +$13.47at 0.550Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 9?
- +$3.95at 0.230Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 23:17 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.73 |
| 09-17 23:17 | Will Taylor Brown win Big Brother season 28? | SELL | 0.84 | $25.20 |
| 09-17 23:15 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.99 |
| 09-17 22:47 | Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | SELL | 0.9267876667 | $27.80 |
| 09-17 22:37 | Will Antoine Semenyo win the 2026-27 English Premier League Player of the Season award? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.93 |
| 09-17 22:37 | Will the 2027 UEFA Champions League winner come from France? | SELL | 0.81 | $24.30 |
| 09-17 22:37 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.9007692308 | $58.55 |
| 09-17 22:27 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.981 | $19.62 |
| 09-17 22:17 | Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $44.85 |
| 09-17 22:07 | Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.46 |
| 09-17 21:37 | Will John R. "Buster" Brown win the 2026 Collin County Judge election? | SELL | 0.73 | $21.90 |
| 09-17 21:37 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? | SELL | 0.923 | $27.69 |
| 09-17 20:37 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.894 | $58.11 |
| 09-17 20:17 | Multipli.fi FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.86 | $55.90 |
| 09-17 19:57 | Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.882 | $57.33 |