textbook
0xcb4ca20e90dc83f60a1b2ccf6609c6a650907b09
- Realised P&L
- $-248.19
- Volume
- $8.3k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $64.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? · No | 0.820 | 0.760 | $38.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.775 | $15.50 | +$1.90 |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.225 | $4.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will the Eagles win the season series against the Cowboys during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.205 | $4.10 | −$2.30 |
| Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.110 | $2.20 | −$1.80 |
| Will over 66 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.045 | $0.56 | −$1.89 |
| Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.36at 0.624Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.460Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?
- +$0.50at 0.610Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.41at 0.680Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.830Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 06:00 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.35 |
| 09-16 00:31 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 09-15 22:48 | Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? | SELL | 0.43 | $13.85 |
| 09-15 20:54 | Will Yash Patel win Big Brother season 28? | SELL | 0.233 | $3.91 |
| 09-15 20:27 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.47 | $12.61 |
| 09-15 18:29 | Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | SELL | 0.31 | $15.25 |
| 09-15 16:33 | Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $34.00 |
| 09-15 12:37 | Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 09-15 10:23 | Will NK Rudeš be relegated from the 2026-27 Croatian HNL? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 09-15 09:44 | Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | SELL | 0.58 | $36.97 |
| 09-15 08:44 | Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 09-15 07:12 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-06 House election by 25%-30%? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.65 |
| 09-15 04:02 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 40%-45%? | SELL | 0.7 | $7.94 |
| 09-15 03:07 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $33.50 |
| 09-15 01:07 | Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |