0xcb15241baf1d191ad5685e169406109558c45934
0xcb15241baf1d191ad5685e169406109558c45934
- Realised P&L
- $1.15
- Volume
- $269.24
- Markets traded
- 103
- Open portfolio
- $2.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded103
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · No | 0.742 | 0.729 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.235 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.585 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.05at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$4.70at 0.247Will Trump say "Regulation" during Michigan remarks?
- +$2.69at 0.650Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?
- +$2.00at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
- +$1.97at 0.720Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 04:21 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7419999421 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:09 | Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:55 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:55 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 06:50 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 22:50 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:49 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:48 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:43 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:34 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 03:56 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:02 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 10:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:59 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:58 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |