timothygeorge
0xcb13afee5c2d2b13c3d2c42fc0d03515554ed6d3
- Realised P&L
- $-47.56
- Volume
- $12.4k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $46.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Panthers (-2.5) · Panthers | 0.580 | 1.000 | $29.09 | +$12.22 |
| Will Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK end in a draw? · No | 0.850 | 0.865 | $7.00 | +$0.12 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by October 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.220 | $5.53 | −$8.55 |
| Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.735 | $4.41 | +$0.03 |
| Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks · Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.79at 0.700Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$0.40at 0.989Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?
- +$0.22at 0.960Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$0.14at 0.992Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?
- +$0.12at 0.990Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:16 | Will Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8499999938 | $6.88 |
| 01-31 13:29 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? | BUY | 0.9989998553 | $6.11 |
| 01-31 13:27 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.06 |
| 01-30 16:05 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.13 |
| 01-30 15:35 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.09 |
| 01-30 14:33 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.46 |
| 01-30 12:43 | Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $80.92 |
| 12-30 14:50 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.38 |
| 12-30 14:24 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.57 |
| 12-30 12:46 | Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.33 |
| 12-30 09:22 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999503 | $12.67 |
| 12-30 00:57 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.06 |
| 12-29 22:50 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $41.62 |
| 12-29 21:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $48.46 |
| 10-30 21:21 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.64 |