0xcb0eb255387c97222d45b7447cb562769b0a33af
0xcb0eb255387c97222d45b7447cb562769b0a33af
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $584.4k
- Markets traded
- 2,372
- Open portfolio
- $5.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,372
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manuel Añorve Baños win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.044 | $3.40 | +$2.40 |
| Will Mario Moreno Arcos win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.011 | $1.57 | +$0.57 |
| Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.051 | $0.83 | +$0.46 |
| Will Fabiola Alanís Sámano win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.002 | $0.10 | −$1.50 |
| Will Magnus Carlberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$2.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$940.08at 0.394Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
- +$861.97at 0.136Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
- +$651.53at 0.362Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
- +$649.11at 0.358Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$380.66at 0.492Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 01:00 | Will Mario Moreno Arcos win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:29 | Will Manuel Añorve Baños win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? | BUY | 0.0130892499 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 08:46 | Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.0344378284 | $0.79 |
| 09-13 06:33 | Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.014131654 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 17:04 | Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? | SELL | 0.084 | $1.68 |
| 09-12 10:17 | Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? | SELL | 0.117 | $1.40 |
| 09-11 21:14 | Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.10 |
| 09-11 21:14 | Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? | BUY | 0.0229999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 13:58 | Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.0285179574 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 08:42 | Will Magnus Carlberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? | BUY | 0.0316831683 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:57 | Will Fabiola Alanís Sámano win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? | BUY | 0.0169999998 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:28 | Will Magnus Carlberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? | BUY | 0.0429999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 18:28 | Will Magnus Carlberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg? | BUY | 0.0470865215 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 11:38 | Will Drake release a new album by December 31? | SELL | 0.54 | $0.54 |
| 09-10 11:38 | Will "Beef" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.991 | $0.99 |