ARMIN.
0xcaf82a40d2da39f68717d4d0723b488dd626c713
- Realised P&L
- $-43.31
- Volume
- $20.6k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $1.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.00at 0.200Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$7.33at 0.120Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?
- +$7.20at 0.089Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
- +$5.07at 0.283Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$4.62at 0.520Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 18:21 | Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.0143550286 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:21 | Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.0129999873 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:20 | Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.020000314 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:20 | Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0064019257 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:20 | Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:20 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:19 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.0309999705 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:19 | Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:19 | Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:19 | Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:18 | Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:18 | Will Donald Trump dance on May 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.1512249917 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:18 | Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.0060000001 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:18 | Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 18:16 | Trump out as President by May 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |