PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ARMIN.

0xcaf82a40d2da39f68717d4d0723b488dd626c713

Realised P&L
$-43.31
Volume
$20.6k
Markets traded
130
Open portfolio
$1.29

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded130
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0360.020$0.56−$0.44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.037$0.38−$0.63
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes0.0700.025$0.36−$0.64
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? · No0.0180.000$0.00−$1.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00−$1.00
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00−$1.00
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.4550.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? · Yes0.0470.000$0.00−$1.00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.0230.000$0.00−$1.00
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-27 18:21Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?BUY0.0143550286$1.00
05-27 18:21Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?BUY0.0129999873$1.00
05-27 18:20Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?BUY0.020000314$1.00
05-27 18:20Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?BUY0.0064019257$1.00
05-27 18:20Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?BUY0.1499998875$1.00
05-27 18:20Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY0.2899998666$1.00
05-27 18:19Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY0.0309999705$1.00
05-27 18:19Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026?BUY0.089999919$1.00
05-27 18:19Will Donald Trump dance on May 30, 2026?BUY0.1$1.00
05-27 18:19Will Donald Trump dance on May 29, 2026?BUY0.1$1.00
05-27 18:18Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026?BUY0.1199998992$1.00
05-27 18:18Will Donald Trump dance on May 27, 2026?BUY0.1512249917$1.00
05-27 18:18Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?BUY0.0060000001$1.00
05-27 18:18Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?BUY0.0699999363$1.00
05-27 18:16Trump out as President by May 31?BUY0.002$1.00