0xcAF1946d13A1A7967f5d3c76780D012E56b09ad1-1775146417402
0xcaf1946d13a1a7967f5d3c76780d012e56b09ad1
- Realised P&L
- $12.8k
- Volume
- $2.46M
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $995.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.940 | $943.42 | +$50.18 |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.016 | $39.67 | +$4.96 |
| Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.966 | $11.98 | +$2.05 |
| Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.5kat 0.550US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$5.7kat 0.770Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.1kat 0.792Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
- +$4.0kat 0.992US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$3.4kat 0.750US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 18:39 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9346173237 | $14.2k |
| 09-04 15:23 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.4k |
| 09-03 21:29 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.5k |
| 09-01 22:33 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | BUY | 0.961 | $19.95 |
| 09-01 21:44 | Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan? | BUY | 0.968 | $4.3k |
| 05-12 21:30 | Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.4k |
| 05-09 17:45 | Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? | BUY | 0.8996278215 | $2.0k |
| 05-08 14:18 | Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? | BUY | 0.8567270366 | $1.7k |
| 04-22 17:17 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1125709993 | $1.0k |
| 04-19 19:42 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $19.7k |
| 04-18 11:23 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6964611969 | $21.5k |
| 04-17 21:19 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4432423052 | $7.4k |
| 04-17 17:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $309.06 |
| 04-17 17:47 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $609.60 |
| 04-17 17:47 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $172.10 |