Ledinonciateur
0xcae54f3c2aa1d95f008f302b1a1c40afdb36a796
- Realised P&L
- $618.41
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $525.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.873 | 0.883 | $318.79 | +$3.79 |
| Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.975 | $112.01 | +$12.01 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.855 | $95.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on October 15? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$529.48at 0.616Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$40.43at 0.970Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 9?
- +$27.53at 0.970Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on September 3?
- +$20.07at 0.862Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
- +$17.24at 0.983Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9188973228 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 13:57 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.589999998 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 13:43 | Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8999999928 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 13:32 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.9821948829 | $1000.00 |
| 10-13 13:26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9439999985 | $10.00 |
| 10-09 09:19 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8729999999 | $315.00 |
| 10-09 09:16 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 9? | BUY | 0.9683495275 | $1.3k |
| 09-03 10:09 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on September 3? | BUY | 0.9681728877 | $880.00 |
| 09-03 09:50 | Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.9832884229 | $700.00 |
| 07-27 14:08 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.915762005 | $88.50 |
| 07-27 13:59 | Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 13:48 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.95 | $100.00 |
| 07-18 11:12 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.961859203 | $139.50 |
| 07-17 16:03 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 17? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 17:50 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 17? | BUY | 0.8839183509 | $122.00 |