erwfas
0xcad350f1dfa03c7651fa4c5f0a5bd8d60476377f
- Realised P&L
- $-569.31
- Volume
- $22.8k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $164.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? · No | 0.998 | 0.975 | $90.81 | −$2.19 |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 17? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $74.04 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.48at 0.517Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5
- +$145.53at 0.527Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
- +$143.64at 0.430Pacers vs. Wizards
- +$100.70at 0.470Trail Blazers vs. Bucks
- +$99.50at 0.500Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:47 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $74.00 |
| 08-10 14:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10? | BUY | 0.998 | $97.00 |
| 07-13 08:32 | England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.53 | $96.46 |
| 07-07 10:18 | Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? | BUY | 0.998 | $93.00 |
| 06-04 10:22 | Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.5 | $97.50 |
| 05-26 09:12 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $176.80 |
| 05-26 09:11 | Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $160.16 |
| 05-18 09:12 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 | BUY | 0.51 | $188.65 |
| 05-07 13:58 | Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $99.62 |
| 05-07 13:54 | Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.998 | $91.00 |
| 04-13 13:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.14 |
| 04-05 09:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.14 |
| 04-05 09:54 | Capitals vs. Rangers | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 03-29 10:49 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.59 |
| 03-29 10:48 | Kings vs. Nets | BUY | 0.51 | $101.49 |