a5658mn
0xca45f23b4ecce01925c86aa58c82d09eec4a49ae
- Realised P&L
- $103.06
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $2.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.090 | $0.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.530 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.365 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Solana reach $250 in August? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors · Cavaliers | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Celtics vs. Spurs · Celtics | 0.439 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Senators vs. Oilers · Senators | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala · Jessica Pegula | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-15? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.06at 0.463Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers
- +$32.89at 0.432Norfolk State Spartans vs. Morgan State Bears
- +$29.78at 0.145Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?
- +$23.72at 0.174Merrimack College Warriors vs. Canisius Golden Griffins
- +$16.49at 0.603Bryant Bulldogs vs. New Hampshire Wildcats
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 03:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 15:27 | Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 04:51 | Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 07:18 | KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Doosan Bears | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 08:48 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 05-31 05:09 | Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 05:55 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 05:54 | Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.65 |
| 05-16 06:28 | Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | BUY | 0.1367891575 | $9.79 |
| 04-30 10:58 | Cavaliers vs. Raptors | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 02:53 | Avalanche vs. Flames | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 08:32 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-15? | BUY | 0.449999955 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 08:32 | Nuggets vs. Grizzlies | SELL | 0.22 | $4.94 |
| 03-10 07:44 | Celtics vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.4390004433 | $10.00 |
| 03-07 05:14 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers | BUY | 0.4606759153 | $49.57 |