0xB17dA27B24510076115E750f2B8f618Cb43856f9
0xca32458e2155098f7735bf5e8bd6b675c80c2c78
- Realised P&L
- $8.42
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $500.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.76at 0.850Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$1.13at 0.470[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.45at 0.967Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition
- +$0.41at 0.995Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
- +$0.39at 0.994Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-08 04:03 | Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQe | BUY | 0.978 | $17.60 |
| 02-06 07:57 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.957 | $17.23 |
| 02-06 07:52 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $17.29 |
| 01-31 05:13 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.994 | $18.89 |
| 01-31 05:13 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.994 | $18.89 |
| 01-29 03:54 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $16.72 |
| 01-27 08:25 | Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | BUY | 0.985 | $16.75 |
| 01-25 19:45 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.958 | $16.29 |
| 01-23 14:20 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $15.30 |
| 01-22 07:42 | Fed abolished before 2027? | BUY | 0.976 | $16.59 |
| 01-20 08:41 | EU dissolves before 2027? | BUY | 0.944 | $15.10 |
| 01-18 05:46 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $18.05 |
| 01-16 11:23 | Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $18.94 |
| 01-15 08:50 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $13.43 |
| 01-14 04:54 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.972 | $17.50 |