0xca3030be3c4aa403d5062618307dc29c1892a0b2
0xca3030be3c4aa403d5062618307dc29c1892a0b2
- Realised P&L
- $5.3k
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $448.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar18.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.085 | $442.99 | +$9.91 |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.285 | $4.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-09-09? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.044 | $0.56 | −$1.44 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees · New York Yankees | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.00 |
| Will EC Vitória win on 2026-10-19? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Asyut Petroleum SC win on 2026-10-20? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-10-07? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Santos FC win on 2026-10-08? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.4kat 0.183Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$104.13at 0.627Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$26.51at 0.424Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$18.89at 0.584Will United States win on 2026-10-06?
- +$5.54at 0.280Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-08-31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 18:32 | Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 17:42 | Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-09-09? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 10-20 01:55 | Will Asyut Petroleum SC win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 10-19 22:33 | Will EC Vitória win on 2026-10-19? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 10-19 22:28 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999996 | $6.00 |
| 10-17 00:05 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:32 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 21:31 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $10.55 |
| 10-16 21:31 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | SELL | 0.35 | $2.19 |
| 10-11 22:07 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers | BUY | 0.5 | $21.00 |
| 10-11 22:05 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 10-09 06:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 10-09 05:58 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 10-08 22:12 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 10-08 07:10 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |