laura11
0xca2c696e93063abe2fcfabe8da78efaff90aa5e1
- Realised P&L
- $128.17
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $56.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.810 | $30.75 | +$4.18 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.855 | $14.28 | +$2.09 |
| Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2026 AFC North? · No | 0.620 | 0.535 | $11.00 | −$1.75 |
| Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5 · Under | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.62 |
| China Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik · Jakub Mensik | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$183.99at 0.270Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$52.56at 0.598Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$47.79at 0.530Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?
- +$42.82at 0.420Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?
- +$10.07at 0.998Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:01 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.60 |
| 01-30 16:55 | Will Opendoor reach $8.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.85 |
| 01-30 15:47 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.10 |
| 01-30 15:22 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9989999774 | $32.24 |
| 01-30 13:17 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.87 |
| 12-30 12:01 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.64 |
| 12-30 10:29 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.47 |
| 12-30 10:03 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.00 |
| 12-30 08:09 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999786 | $16.38 |
| 12-29 23:30 | Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.9949999904 | $38.87 |
| 12-29 22:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999903 | $20.78 |
| 10-31 15:07 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.53 |
| 10-31 14:50 | Will Solana dip to $150 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $28.41 |
| 09-29 13:06 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999256 | $12.50 |
| 09-29 12:18 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.9989999412 | $13.21 |