kkh7dvc
0xca15fa63af4f8438edc7214b2cdfc0896145a949
- Realised P&L
- $84.18
- Volume
- $873.81
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $15.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? · Yes | 0.992 | 0.974 | $15.40 | −$0.29 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.96at 0.073Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?
- +$3.53at 0.940Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$3.24at 0.749Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$3.19at 0.610Hawks vs. Rockets
- +$3.17at 0.950US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 10:47 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.992 | $15.69 |
| 09-20 07:18 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.975 | $7.38 |
| 08-12 11:41 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.985999986 | $7.46 |
| 08-04 07:20 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.85 | $50.25 |
| 08-03 10:04 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.792 | $60.63 |
| 08-02 07:27 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.808 | $49.60 |
| 07-22 07:17 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.96 | $43.39 |
| 07-16 08:38 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.9669999817 | $50.99 |
| 07-09 11:02 | Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY | 0.9399999987 | $29.98 |
| 07-03 10:05 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5? | BUY | 0.9559999831 | $19.03 |
| 06-27 07:52 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.9399999822 | $22.18 |
| 06-21 16:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.94 | $55.28 |
| 06-10 12:10 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY | 0.95 | $60.19 |
| 06-05 10:21 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999876 | $5.13 |
| 05-28 10:53 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9389999593 | $13.32 |