Timolol45
0xca12871dd77e8c09c650005753334d1a0e18e855
- Realised P&L
- $141.96
- Volume
- $114.2k
- Markets traded
- 252
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded252
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.944 | $944.00 | +$44.00 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? · No | 0.945 | 0.930 | $787.41 | −$12.59 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.885 | $778.02 | −$21.98 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons · Pistons | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$323.77at 0.647Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
- +$108.11at 0.903NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves
- +$107.19at 0.876Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
- +$96.00at 0.900US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?
- +$94.81at 0.912Pacers vs. Hornets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 14:17 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | SELL | 0.996 | $996.00 |
| 10-07 12:05 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | BUY | 0.9448693591 | $800.00 |
| 10-07 12:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $800.00 |
| 10-06 16:07 | Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $750.00 |
| 10-05 12:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9 | $900.00 |
| 10-03 21:34 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | BUY | 0.9 | $500.00 |
| 10-02 00:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | BUY | 0.9 | $900.00 |
| 10-01 04:15 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $799.19 |
| 10-01 00:41 | Will Argentina win on 2026-09-30? | SELL | 0.995 | $865.21 |
| 09-30 20:39 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $288.59 |
| 09-30 18:38 | Will Argentina win on 2026-09-30? | BUY | 0.92 | $800.00 |
| 09-25 19:45 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8999999997 | $260.00 |
| 09-25 13:03 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.9182881045 | $486.26 |
| 05-25 05:18 | Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $226.82 |
| 05-21 20:17 | Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY | 0.8808392709 | $200.00 |