Hono
0xc9c170873e07e44e1c2979a35821d5949c00de26
- Realised P&L
- $-11.63
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $95.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.305 | $69.39 | +$8.11 |
| Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.051 | $15.45 | −$14.55 |
| Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.050 | $10.24 | −$19.76 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.20 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 31-September 6? · No | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 11? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.60 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? · No | 0.661 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? · Yes | 0.409 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.91at 0.220Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$43.18at 0.240Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$38.25at 0.539Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament
- +$35.02at 0.400Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$24.86at 0.280Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 11:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 11? | BUY | 0.5499999964 | $30.60 |
| 09-02 11:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.4099999959 | $30.00 |
| 08-27 16:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.7369999998 | $29.00 |
| 08-27 16:18 | Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3790977504 | $47.35 |
| 08-27 16:17 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.47 | $21.02 |
| 08-27 16:17 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.770600024 | $64.21 |
| 08-21 13:28 | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2693407104 | $61.28 |
| 08-21 13:27 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8746666667 | $65.60 |
| 08-21 13:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | BUY | 0.6629999965 | $15.00 |
| 08-21 13:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | SELL | 0.9816447453 | $15.23 |
| 08-05 09:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | BUY | 0.5799999871 | $9.00 |
| 08-05 09:56 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4472084411 | $20.00 |
| 08-05 09:56 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.042804717 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 20:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999541 | $4.00 |
| 06-02 20:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $3.00 |