caprice1
0xc98e5a80eefada49e960e65a5486f8cb65eaf0e7
- Realised P&L
- $-785.52
- Volume
- $22.0k
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $46.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.60at 0.723Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?
- +$51.21at 0.509Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$49.14at 0.817Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
- +$45.38at 0.666Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$38.91at 0.511Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 22:47 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6239999985 | $33.07 |
| 08-30 00:01 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | BUY | 0.4630074381 | $46.35 |
| 08-29 23:57 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | BUY | 0.390072651 | $200.00 |
| 06-19 22:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 06-17 15:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999989 | $25.00 |
| 06-17 15:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | BUY | 0.5299999936 | $25.00 |
| 06-16 15:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $35.35 |
| 06-16 15:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | BUY | 0.6999999972 | $25.00 |
| 06-02 23:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | BUY | 0.7199999808 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 23:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999475 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 23:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6999999767 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 23:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $3.46 |
| 06-02 23:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | BUY | 0.84 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 23:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | BUY | 0.5199999834 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 23:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $7.46 |