Parad0x658
0xc954be6828acc8654f7775dfa924fc73222a6609
- Realised P&L
- $-20.3k
- Volume
- $967.0k
- Markets traded
- 225
- Open portfolio
- $712.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded225
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.335 | 0.313 | $467.94 | −$32.89 |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.624 | 0.610 | $245.04 | −$5.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$245.30at 0.165Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- +$22.42at 0.320Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$22.22at 0.630Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$19.41at 0.958Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$15.24at 0.340Hornets vs. Celtics
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 15:39 | Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.6127742177 | $606.63 |
| 10-20 15:39 | Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | SELL | 0.315 | $1.57 |
| 10-16 18:26 | Will one person dissent the December Fed decision? | SELL | 0.321 | $14.35 |
| 10-16 03:58 | Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.593 | $10.08 |
| 10-15 19:42 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $106.72 |
| 10-15 16:42 | Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.445 | $252.25 |
| 10-14 20:19 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $48.41 |
| 10-14 18:18 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $31.55 |
| 10-14 16:18 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $13.50 |
| 10-12 15:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | SELL | 0.62 | $3.10 |
| 10-11 02:54 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $151.20 |
| 10-10 19:02 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.35 | $135.80 |
| 10-09 13:47 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 10-08 07:36 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.281 | $16.30 |
| 10-07 20:19 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.3331185185 | $71.95 |