0xc94808872fea94415f2ba12dfbd19aba7deee6cd
- Realised P&L
- $-157.66
- Volume
- $12.7k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $146.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.195 | $25.19 | +$4.52 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.195 | $22.59 | −$0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.185 | $20.39 | −$0.55 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.175 | $20.36 | −$0.58 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.165 | $20.32 | −$0.62 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.705 | $19.11 | +$1.43 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.135 | $14.79 | −$4.93 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.825 | $3.32 | +$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.55at 0.741Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?
- +$40.14at 0.663US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
- +$36.51at 0.784US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$34.14at 0.786MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$27.63at 0.880Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 01:25 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999744 | $4.13 |
| 09-16 01:25 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999952 | $13.55 |
| 09-16 01:21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999994 | $20.94 |
| 09-16 01:21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.179999999 | $20.94 |
| 09-16 01:21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999988 | $20.94 |
| 09-15 08:05 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999776 | $3.26 |
| 09-15 08:03 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999277 | $10.22 |
| 09-15 08:03 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999867 | $42.21 |
| 09-15 01:23 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999974 | $10.92 |
| 09-15 01:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $29.27 |
| 09-15 01:16 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $24.24 |
| 09-15 01:16 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $17.18 |
| 09-15 01:12 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.67 |
| 09-14 02:08 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $3.40 |
| 09-14 02:07 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999638 | $14.10 |