youran.
0xc944a32eed5dce3458b7b7a14dfd37b0c62a1686
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $225.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,771
- Open portfolio
- $785.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,771
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.342 | 0.665 | $590.72 | +$286.62 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.519 | 0.830 | $132.80 | +$49.80 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.495 | $49.50 | −$3.50 |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.790 | $11.83 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.212 | 0.001 | $0.23 | −$95.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.001 | $0.20 | −$3.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.513 | 0.001 | $0.14 | −$147.21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$10.84 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$15.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.423 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$36.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$368.19at 0.109Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?
- +$345.02at 0.204Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 3?
- +$336.63at 0.327Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?
- +$283.35at 0.054Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 11?
- +$248.27at 0.134Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 14:09 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.39 |
| 08-05 14:08 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.482195122 | $4.94 |
| 08-05 11:14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.66 | $86.22 |
| 08-05 11:14 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.47 |
| 08-05 10:24 | Spain snap election called in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $11.83 |
| 08-05 10:13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.111873805 | $2.34 |
| 08-05 09:39 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.25 |
| 08-05 09:28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.13 | $0.99 |
| 08-04 18:32 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.41 | $29.57 |
| 08-04 18:28 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.16 | $14.24 |
| 08-04 18:28 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 08-04 17:38 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.091 | $3.05 |
| 08-04 17:38 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.44 | $22.63 |
| 08-04 15:32 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.95 |
| 08-04 14:33 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1085944293 | $22.73 |