monkeycode
0xc9278de1729b39e70122e0a6670826169447be19
- Realised P&L
- $-512.03
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $51.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.400 | $47.04 | −$11.76 |
| Will Drake release a new album by September 30? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.074 | $4.82 | −$16.01 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 31? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$372.57 |
| Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? · Yes | 0.649 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.39 |
| Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? · No | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$159.29 |
| Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? · No | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$199.50at 0.430Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?
- +$96.88at 0.563Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?
- +$87.50at 0.650Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?
- +$51.52at 0.660US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
- +$27.96at 0.728Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 08:07 | Will Drake release a new album by September 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $20.83 |
| 09-13 07:12 | Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | SELL | 0.0265 | $2.65 |
| 09-12 09:14 | Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 09-12 09:14 | Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 09-12 09:07 | Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 7? | BUY | 0.6491223077 | $84.39 |
| 09-12 09:05 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $34.19 |
| 08-23 01:14 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $105.00 |
| 07-27 20:44 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 14:10 | Grok 4.4 released by July 31? | BUY | 0.4899999994 | $70.00 |
| 06-04 06:17 | Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? | BUY | 0.0789999915 | $8.00 |
| 06-04 06:17 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 05-16 02:11 | Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? | BUY | 0.5692330564 | $130.00 |
| 04-07 15:18 | Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30? | BUY | 0.7284330443 | $75.00 |
| 03-07 21:33 | Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | BUY | 0.3899999989 | $159.29 |
| 03-05 14:02 | Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6791773201 | $172.57 |