davethepainn
0xc8fb3192f2c88f2c632a0fd92061e5d3e5ce7c7e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $19.5k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $26.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.190 | $26.01 | −$72.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.660Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
- +$-0.07at 0.620Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30?
- +$-0.13at 0.392Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30?
- +$-1.16at 0.690Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?
- +$-3.02at 0.550Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 13:39 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | SELL | 0.5 | $24.14 |
| 08-29 16:47 | Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.69 | $93.70 |
| 08-29 04:39 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30? | SELL | 0.36 | $1.06 |
| 08-29 04:39 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.84 |
| 08-29 04:37 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.02 |
| 08-29 04:36 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.02 |
| 08-29 04:36 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 30? | BUY | 0.3799998441 | $1.17 |
| 08-24 08:23 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.558 | $89.48 |
| 08-23 18:09 | Will Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election? | SELL | 0.4033632101 | $58.50 |
| 08-23 18:08 | Will Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election? | SELL | 0.4 | $16.00 |
| 08-17 14:28 | Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? | SELL | 0.125 | $0.01 |
| 08-10 18:02 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $214.92 |
| 08-08 06:15 | Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? | SELL | 0.171 | $51.65 |
| 08-07 07:41 | Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.00 |
| 08-07 06:21 | Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.30 |