0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836
0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836
- Realised P&L
- $370.9k
- Volume
- $5.47M
- Markets traded
- 644
- Open portfolio
- $460.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded644
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$63.9kat 0.720Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$37.6kat 0.537Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$28.3kat 0.336Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$18.3kat 0.037Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
- +$11.9kat 0.515Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:26 | Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson? | SELL | 0.81 | $82.62 |
| 11-01 16:55 | Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson? | BUY | 0.4204604948 | $850.34 |
| 11-01 13:07 | Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%? | BUY | 0.7898190895 | $382.88 |
| 11-01 12:51 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more? | BUY | 0.8625746129 | $4.4k |
| 11-01 12:47 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.8328218615 | $27.1k |
| 11-01 10:44 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 09:05 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7179351333 | $8.6k |
| 11-01 08:25 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.1k |
| 11-01 08:23 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6796491366 | $13.9k |
| 10-31 19:45 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%? | BUY | 0.2673555422 | $834.09 |
| 10-31 19:38 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%? | BUY | 0.6886969083 | $581.63 |
| 10-31 16:19 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-05 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.99 | $511.83 |
| 10-31 15:09 | Will Troy Jackson run 9 or more points behind Hannah Pingree? | SELL | 0.99 | $679.48 |
| 10-31 14:47 | Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.7780004969 | $438.43 |
| 10-31 10:01 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 30%-35%? | BUY | 0.2735161222 | $552.30 |