Parisonligne
0xc8b0208ea6226f498e43d34469ce93d4e1a50853
- Realised P&L
- $-160.03
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $33.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.019 | $24.68 | −$75.32 |
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.032 | $4.57 | −$5.43 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.033 | $2.17 | −$7.83 |
| New pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.019 | $1.90 | −$8.10 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.77 |
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.39 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.20 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.25at 0.381Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
- +$15.58at 0.391Will England win on 2026-07-05?
- +$14.74at 0.263Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
- +$-5.23at 0.366Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
- +$-5.29at 0.180Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 19:49 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0589999996 | $120.39 |
| 07-05 19:47 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.2699999863 | $9.69 |
| 07-05 19:46 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.3699999794 | $9.71 |
| 07-05 19:46 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2399999933 | $24.20 |
| 07-05 19:45 | Will England win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.3799999812 | $9.72 |
| 07-05 19:45 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.5499999859 | $9.77 |
| 05-25 16:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 05-23 13:14 | Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 05-23 13:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 20:11 | Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | BUY | 0.0190000001 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 19:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 19:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 19:44 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 19:43 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0809999926 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 19:40 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0789999993 | $100.00 |