graveman
0xc8979dacbeb48dd4df8f16e27714dc29e8b10bdf
- Realised P&L
- $16.52
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $108.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? · No | 0.974 | 0.975 | $53.36 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat? · No | 0.979 | 0.981 | $41.72 | +$0.09 |
| Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.966 | 0.950 | $8.02 | −$0.14 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-27 House seat? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.942 | $5.46 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.63at 0.942Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.71at 0.969Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.47at 0.949Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?
- +$1.23at 0.967Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.03at 0.979Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-14 08:07 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? | BUY | 0.9839999996 | $22.36 |