0xC895bA1DA746db395f844A63dECFE1d8C7716385-1776878450262
0xc895ba1da746db395f844a63decfe1d8c7716385
- Realised P&L
- $77.58
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $215.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? · Yes | 0.883 | 0.810 | $215.57 | −$19.43 |
| Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 11? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
| Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k? · Yes | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$195.82 |
| Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 4? · Yes | 0.197 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$116.43at 0.677Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1?
- +$85.04at 0.705Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 11?
- +$50.19at 0.788Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?
- +$39.08at 0.866Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?
- +$19.79at 0.906Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 22:14 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? | BUY | 0.9279999983 | $35.00 |
| 10-05 22:13 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? | BUY | 0.8922818164 | $100.00 |
| 10-05 22:13 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17? | BUY | 0.8595188681 | $100.00 |
| 09-26 13:40 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10? | BUY | 0.9699999996 | $27.00 |
| 09-26 13:39 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10? | BUY | 0.9607927214 | $100.00 |
| 09-26 13:39 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 10? | BUY | 0.96 | $100.00 |
| 09-01 02:40 | Will "Don't Look Down - Rod Wave" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of September 12? | BUY | 0.9832969865 | $224.00 |
| 08-27 16:13 | Will "THE SIN : BLISS - ENHYPEN" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of September 5? | BUY | 0.9631464234 | $216.00 |
| 08-20 13:08 | Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 29? | BUY | 0.9745702504 | $210.00 |
| 08-05 10:13 | Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 15? | BUY | 0.9016395095 | $190.00 |
| 08-05 06:03 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k? | BUY | 0.3486030268 | $95.82 |
| 08-02 03:46 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 16:50 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more? | SELL | 0.46 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 17:12 | Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more? | BUY | 0.4599999983 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 08:38 | Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8? | SELL | 0.55 | $37.50 |