hwxlza
0xc86ed4cc9373c0b60e97004b528ead9ef6e0d8f6
- Realised P&L
- $28.71
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $135.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.978 | 0.975 | $135.53 | −$0.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.33at 0.998Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.13at 0.992Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
- +$3.59at 0.988Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$2.95at 0.956Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- +$2.15at 0.980US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 05:45 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.978 | $29.34 |
| 10-01 02:39 | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $134.55 |
| 09-29 12:38 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of September? | BUY | 0.998 | $53.89 |
| 09-29 12:37 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $110 end of September? | BUY | 0.998 | $79.84 |
| 09-14 01:04 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $133.46 |
| 07-30 01:09 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.954 | $132.61 |
| 07-03 10:48 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $129.69 |
| 06-25 12:48 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $129.74 |
| 06-16 10:58 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.0k |
| 06-08 11:07 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.0k |
| 05-28 11:18 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $158.65 |
| 05-17 12:34 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $117.33 |
| 05-02 01:11 | Will Solana dip to $10 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $116.65 |
| 04-28 01:10 | Will Tesla dip to $285 in April? | BUY | 0.996 | $116.53 |
| 04-19 07:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $109.34 |