FrownManner
0xc8672c17665b9a203c6d7e6436c4e0580da2dcc3
- Realised P&L
- $-14.27
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $28.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.79at 0.336Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-07-30?
- +$4.46at 0.322Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-07-30?
- +$3.96at 0.208Parma Calcio leading at halftime?
- +$3.14at 0.371Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 16?
- +$3.09at 0.382Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-07-18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 03:30 | Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 10-01 03:30 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 10-01 03:30 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 09-30 23:24 | Will an AL West team win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-30 23:22 | Will an AL Central team win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.92 |
| 09-30 23:22 | Will an AL East team win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-30 23:22 | Will an NL West team win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.34 | $0.34 |
| 09-30 23:22 | Will an NL Central team win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 09-30 23:22 | Will an NL East team win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 07-31 07:35 | Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12%? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 07-31 05:24 | Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12%? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 07-31 05:24 | Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 07-31 05:22 | Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 12–16%? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 07-31 05:22 | Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 07-31 05:22 | Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |