phcrux1
0xc8625094f8b6f88a28fec3a1362caf49bbd53fb2
- Realised P&L
- $337.50
- Volume
- $25.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,097
- Open portfolio
- $588.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,097
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.33at 0.015Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
- +$40.29at 0.580Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
- +$37.58at 0.038Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
- +$37.14at 0.350Canadiens vs. Capitals
- +$37.07at 0.014Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 14:08 | Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 14:08 | Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 14:08 | Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 14:07 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat? | BUY | 0.7399999734 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 18:06 | Will Dallas Stars advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs? | BUY | 0.4199999496 | $3.00 |
| 09-17 17:25 | Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat? | BUY | 0.3399999773 | $3.00 |
| 09-16 20:15 | Will Montreal Canadiens advance to the Second Round of the 2027 Stanley Cup Playoffs? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.80 |
| 09-16 20:09 | Will Montreal Canadiens be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion? | BUY | 0.0519999993 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 14:17 | Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0179999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:17 | Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0139999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:17 | Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:16 | Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0179999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:12 | Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799998733 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 14:11 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:11 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.00 |