urb4n
0xc85371ada5e5182ddb294ebd27608cb0f4c90e2c
- Realised P&L
- $-20.11
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $21.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.820 | $4.10 | +$1.35 |
| Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.550 | 0.700 | $3.50 | +$0.75 |
| Will "Wildwood" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.600 | 0.685 | $3.42 | +$0.42 |
| Will Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 total revenue be above $8.4B? · No | 0.600 | 0.635 | $3.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 total revenue be above $8.5B? · No | 0.600 | 0.540 | $2.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Bank of America say "Tailwind" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.410 | $2.05 | −$0.70 |
| Will Bank of America say "Zelle" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.280 | $1.40 | −$1.35 |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.099 | $0.49 | −$2.01 |
| Will Bank of America say "Merger" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.180 | $0.21 | −$0.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.47at 0.383Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$12.05at 0.620Knicks vs. Magic
- +$12.04at 0.388Will Airbnb say "International" during earnings call?
- +$7.50at 0.200Will Docusign say "LLM" during earnings call?
- +$4.15at 0.500Will Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q2 comparable sales growth be above 4%-6%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:02 | Will Lennar Corp (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.0016 | $0.02 |
| 09-15 08:11 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.40 |
| 09-12 13:27 | Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 38m? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.03 |
| 09-12 13:27 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 09-12 13:27 | Will "Runner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m? | SELL | 0.0094367816 | $0.08 |
| 09-11 19:16 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.03 |
| 09-11 08:39 | Will "Runner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.27 |
| 09-11 03:53 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $0.99 |
| 08-27 20:01 | Will Workday (WDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 08-26 20:12 | Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 08-13 17:32 | Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.35 |
| 08-06 21:57 | Will Airbnb say "Domestic" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.03092 | $0.15 |
| 08-06 21:56 | Will Airbnb say "Domestic" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.0545466667 | $0.82 |
| 08-06 21:54 | Will Airbnb say "International" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-02 12:32 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.82 |