Cmfdavies
0xc8523312e47dc850428b93fd0fe778e85feb913d
- Realised P&L
- $-111.47
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 132
- Open portfolio
- $14.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded132
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.405 | $5.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.445 | $4.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.605 | $4.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.95 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-12? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.29at 0.174Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.06at 0.387Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?
- +$7.41at 0.407Will England win on 2026-07-05?
- +$7.11at 0.417Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
- +$6.82at 0.427Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 03:36 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 03:36 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17? | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 03:36 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 10:06 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $2.00 |
| 10-07 10:06 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 10:05 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 10:05 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10? | BUY | 0.7099999702 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 17:42 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.6099999593 | $4.95 |
| 09-18 15:00 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 15:00 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 15:00 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 15:00 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 08:09 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 08:08 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.7899999826 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 08:08 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06? | BUY | 0.5699999555 | $5.00 |